From Rules-Based to Results-Based AML Supervision

2026 marks a decisive shift in how regulators evaluate AML programs. The focus is moving from the presence of controls - often a tick-box approach - to the demonstrable effectiveness of those controls. 

Supervisors increasingly expect firms to show how risk assessments are utilized in compliance operations and financial crime prevention. This reflects a growing recognition that emerging types of financial crime, including scam networks, trade-based evasion, and mule activity, are evolving faster than traditional control frameworks. 

Across major jurisdictions, the direction of travel is consistent. In the United States, FinCEN’s proposed overhaul of AML/CFT program rules centers on effectiveness, mandating formal risk assessments and alignment with national AML/CFT priorities. In APAC, Australia’s expanding Tranche 2 regime is sharpening expectations around practical implementation and demonstrable risk mitigation. In Europe, the Single Rulebook and the Anti-Money Laundering Authority’s (AMLA) supervisory role are directing firms towards harmonized, outcome-focused standards. 

Even the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has pivoted towards testing effectiveness, accelerating this shift. Updates to its mutual evaluation methodology place far greater weight on demonstrable effectiveness and not technical compliance alone. Recent country assessments have also been critical where outcomes do not match the stated control framework. 

This global move from rules-based to results-based supervision will set the tone for national regulators, making 2026 a decisive year for outcome-driven expectations. Supervisors will probe how well ongoing monitoring maps to the risk assessment, and how those mappings evolve as risks change. 

Supervisors are moving decisively towards outcome-based assessments, demanding proof that controls genuinely work, not just that they exist. Financial institutions that can demonstrate closed-loop tuning, strong quality assurance processes, disciplined model and rule governance, and meaningful outcome metrics will be better positioned. Even imperfect metrics will often be viewed more favorably than static, control-based programs that cannot show real-world impact.

To find out more about AML enforcement trends, check out our Global AML Fines Research Report.