Predictions for EMEA in 2026: AI at Scale, Tech Consolidation, and Sanctions That Get More Operational

Financial institutions in Europe, Africa and the Middle East (EMEA) are heading into 2026 with an awkward equation: more cross-border activity, more complex products, and a more fractured compliance landscape  - without a matching growth in experienced financial crime talent. We sat down with Fenergo’s Head of Financial Crime Policy, Rory Doyle, and Head of Financial Crime Product, Adam McLaughlin, who explained how that tension shows up in three practical predictions for 2026: AI will become a necessity (not a side project), tech platforms are set to consolidate from end to end, and sanctions programs will evolve in ways that demand more planning, not just more screening.

Prediction #1: AI moves from pilots to pressure-tested production 

Rory explained why increasing adoption of AI will continue in 2026, namely because it solves a growing problem within compliance functions: capacity. “The number of trades around the world are increasing dramatically… [and] the number of educated resources available to financial crime professionals is plateauing,” he said. Meanwhile, suspicious activity reports are “going through the roof” since 2019 in both the UK and the European Union. 

His prediction for 2026 is straightforward: more institutions in Europe will push AI deeper into day-to-day controls, helped by regulators signaling openness to artificial intelligence and new technologies. The point isn’t novelty. It’s triage - reducing noise, prioritizing alerts, and helping investigators focus on what matters. 

Rory also framed AI as a defensive move for the region. Without it, he argued, we will see “this area or this region being used more and more as a conduit for money laundering.” In 2026, the real shift won’t be “more models.” It will be more operational AI: integrated into case management, grounded in better data, and governed tightly enough to stand up to internal audits and supervisory expectations. 

2026 becomes the year of tech stack consolidation 

Where Rory described the workload problem, Adam dug into the architecture problem underneath it. “2026 is going to be the year of tech stack consolidation,” he said. He expects “greater consolidation of technology for end-to-end processing, and a greater integration of the various functions, KYC (Know Your Customer), fraud, and transaction monitoring.” 

Why is consolidation accelerating now? Adam pointed to banks’ need for cost control as one explanation, but also to decision quality. Organizations want “that single integrated consolidated technology stack” and “that single pane of glass” so they can answer a deceptively simple question: do we really understand this customer? 

In EMEA, 2026 is likely to bring more programs that unify onboarding and know-your-customer (KYC) data with fraud signals, transaction monitoring, and sanctions screening - with fewer vendors and fewer handoffs between tools. The winners won’t be the firms that consolidate fastest; they’ll be the ones that consolidate cleanly, with realistic migration plans and measurable outcomes (fewer false positives, faster investigations, clearer audit trails). 

Sanctions stay aligned across regions - and expand beyond geopolitics 

On sanctions, Adam predicted continued alignment between Europe and the US. “In 2026, we’re going to remain consolidated across Europe and the US,” he said, adding that the divergence many expected from 2025 did not materialize. He also expects sanctions to be used more aggressively against organized crime groups, pointing to recent actions by the US against crime gangs and the UK’s 2025 sanctions on smuggling networks. His call: “Europe’s going to follow suit in 2026.” 

Rory’s sanctions prediction went beyond who gets sanctioned and how. It went beyond that to ask what happens when restrictions eventually change. He noted that institutions have had “a lot of money blocked through sanctions” in the last several years due to conflicts and other geopolitical factors. Rory’s belief is that it’s time to set up “research or project teams” to prepare for scenarios where sanctions are lifted on certain individuals or entities as the Ukraine conflict evolves. In other words: build the playbook before the pressure hits. 

What these predictions mean for EMEA leaders 

The common thread across the three predictions is unglamorous but useful: 2026 is about scaling control without scaling chaos. AI adoption will accelerate because manual processes simply can’t keep up. Consolidation will accelerate because fragmented platforms can’t deliver a consistent customer and risk view and financial institutions need better risk management. And sanctions work becomes both broader and more operationally complex (planning for potential unwind). 

The firms best positioned for 2026 will connect those dots - strong data foundations, integrated workflows, and governance that lets automation move fast without dropping the ball. 

Stay ahead of what’s coming next 
The shifts outlined here—operational AI, platform consolidation, and more complex sanctions management—will be shaped by regulatory change as much as technology. Visit Fenergo’s Regulatory Horizon Scanning 2026 hub to track upcoming rules across EMEA, understand their practical impact, and plan with clarity rather than urgency.